Early forecasting of expected return of new technologies

Title PhD project: A model to early forecast of expected return of new innovative medical technologies in Danish Hospitals. Study case: Tele medical patient suitcase/briefcase

Background and purpose

There is an increasing need for early decision support, when making decisions about importation and development of innovative medical technologies (IMT). Connected with the challenging economics conditions the healthcare system face the next few years, and especially the increased focus on IMT, it is important to develop a new approach, which early in the technology process of development can assess the expected return of the IMT in the long run. Today we have a lot of new technologies – but we lack a model to early asses which technologies that probably get economic cost-effective in day-to-day operations (the land in the figure).

Billede, tidlig vurdering

Method (phases)

  1. A systematic literature survey identifies the existed forecast models used on technology in the pilot phase.
  2. Through qualitative interviews establish forecast methods, which are used in the industry (pharmaceutical and device industry) and applies of model developer from the healthcare system and the academic world.
  3. An early forecast model are developed, based on input from phase 1 and 2.
  4. Data from the evaluating and use of the tele medical patient suitcase/briefcase applies to test the robustness and the quality of the forecast model.


The perspective

A new model for early forecast of expected return of IMT expects to add value for strategic develop decisions in the health care system, including being a competitive advantage in a world that is increasingly globalizes – also the health area.

Permanent link to this article: http://old.cimt.dk/projects/htaandevaluation/early-forecasting/